Friday, January 30, 2015

Super Bowl Prediction...This is Tough

Before I get to my Super Bowl prediction, I'd first like to mention that I correctly picked New England and Seattle to make it here.  Not impressed you say?  Well I'm really not either, considering how good these teams have been this season.  But enough ragging on me, let's unveil this prediction.

I predict that....this will be a great game.  Goodnight folks!  The problem is that that's about all I can truly foresee.  I don't have much of gut feeling on this game, whatsoever.  So the only way I might be able to get an idea is to break this game down by positional units to see where the advantages are. 

Quarterback
Two great ones in my opinion, but for different reasons.  There's not much to say about Tom Brady, except that the guy is playing in his 6th Super Bowl, and he's a future 1st ballot hall of famer.  While Russell Wilson isn't there (yet, in my opinion), he's still great in his own right.  He won the Super Bowl last year, in only his second NFL season, doesn't make many mistakes, and oh yeah, almost ran for 1000 yards this year.  I think his ability to run will keep the Patriots on their toes, but experience at this point outweighs almost anything else.  Reluctantly:
EDGE - Patriots

Running Backs
This is a no brainer.  Marshawn Lynch, although a complete clown-ass, is clearly the best running back in the game.  His nickname is "beast-mode" for a reason.  Don't sleep on LeGarrette Blount, though.  At almost 250lbs, he's capable of putting a hurting on defenses.  Just ask the Colts.  The thing with him too is that he's fairly fresh, considering how little he played in the regular season (Steelers & Patriots).  Yet, with all that being said:
EDGE - Seahawks

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Much like the running backs, there's no debate here.  Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman are head and shoulders above Seattle's receiving corps.  Doug Baldwin can be pretty good for the Seahawks, but they don't rely solely on 1 or 2 guys the way New England does.  Easy call.
EDGE - Patriots

Offensive Line 
I'm not going to pretend that I pay attention to offensive lines much, if at all (unless Eli Manning is getting whacked too often).  But after looking at some stats, New England appears to be better at protecting the quarterback.  They gave up 26 sacks compared to 42 by Seattle.  Keep in mind, though, that these teams are polar opposites, in that the Seahawks ran for 1000 more yards then the Patriots, and the Pats threw for almost 1000 more yards than the Hawks.  But the team that can keep their quarterback's jersey cleanest usually has the upper hand.
EDGE - Patriots

Defensive Line
This is a tough one for me too, because unless there's a stud pass-rusher, I tend to neglect the d-line.  Both teams have guys that can stuff the run and get after the passer.  So to me, this one comes down to which team was better at stopping the run, since it all starts at the line of scrimmage.  Seattle gave up close to 400 fewer yards, and held teams to 3.4 yards per carry, compared to New England's 4.0.  Numbers don't lie.
EDGE - Seahawks

Linebackers
My first instinct was to give this category to Seattle, but I forgot just how good Jamie Collins is for New England.  He's a true all-around linebacker, but really excels in coverage.  Dont'a Hightower is good too, but the group of Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, to me, is a better "unit".  Wright and Wagner combined for 211 tackles themselves.  Not many running backs or receivers get past this group. 
(slight) EDGE - Seahawks

Secondary
This one should be a no brainer.  Seattle is famous for it's secondary, which is referred to as "The Legion of Boom".  Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are possibly the best players at their positions, and Kam Chancellor (a safety with a linebacker's body) isn't too shabby either.  However, New England sports Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner (former Seahawk), Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty.  Revis is in the discussion with Sherman for best corner, and McCourty isn't that far behind Thomas for top safety.  Plus, you have to give New England's group a slight boost considering the injuries to Sherman and Thomas.  This one was tough.
EDGE - Tie (only because of the injuries)

Special Teams
Only the Patriots scored on a punt/kick return (1), and only Seattle gave up a touchdown (1).  That doesn't mean very much at all.  This comes down to field position, and the Patriots average more yards per return on both kicks and punts.  On top of that, Stephen Gostkowski only missed 2 field goals compared to Steven Hauschka's 6.  Again, numbers don't lie.
EDGE - Patriots

If my math is right, that would be 4 edges to 3 in favor of your Super Bowl champion, New England Patriots.  Hmm, that doesn't feel right.  I'm gonna' go with Seattle instead.  I just think their defense will be able to get after Tom Brady and make him uncomfortable all game long.  Also, I can see Russell Wilson scrambling around for some big gains.  And even if New England puts a spy on him to contain his running, that's 1 less defender he has to worry about in coverage. 

Gee, I guess I did have a gut feeling after all.  Good thing I spent all that time breaking down positional units. 

Seattle 20    New England 16

Enjoy the game everyone!

Monday, January 26, 2015

I watched half of the Pro Bowl, do I get an award?

Holy guacamole, that was one of the worst things I've ever watched.  The sad part is, I'm not exaggerating.  The very first drive of the game set the tone for what was to come.  The defense was not tackling, but holding the ball carrier upright until the whistle blew.  The ball carrier practically fell into the defenders arms instead of trying to run them over.  Then on the second drive, a tickle fight broke out!  It was intense.  There's nothing like seeing 300lb men giggling in their nighties, tickling each other.

That game was pathetic.  Actually, it was insulting.  I get that it's the end of the year, and players don't want to get hurt.  But gimme' a break.  Show some sort of effort, or at least show that you give a tiny bit of a damn.  The worst part is that the players were still getting paid.  Losing players cleared $28,000, while the winners brought in $55,000.  Those are some people's yearly salaries.  They work their butts of for an entire year to make that, while NFL players work for 3 hours and pull in that money.  Well, after watching some of the game, they didn't actually have to work for it.  They just had to show up and play grab ass.

The fact that I made it to halftime just shows how desperate I was for football.  And apparently I wasn't the only one.  I'm hearing that the ratings were better than some NBA and MLB playoff games.  Incredible.  Football has apparently gotten so big, that people are willing to watch complete dreck instead of meaningful games in other sports.  By no means am I knocking those people, though, because I'm one of them.  But boy, how times have changed.

The NFL knows they're a juggernaut, so I can't even say they should nix the Pro Bowl, because the ratings tell me people are still watching.  But I will give them credit for trying to make the game more exciting.  No kickoffs, extra points are pushed way back and the goalposts were narrowed.  But when the players don't put in the same effort the NFL does to enhance the game, it's all pointless.  If they're dead-set on keeping this (horrible) game, then make even bigger changes.  Here's what I think they should do:

Turn the game into a mini tournament of pick up, flag-football games.  Ditch the helmets and pads (since they don't hit each other anyway), and let these guys play backyard football.  Shorten the rosters and let the "skill" position guys shine, since that's who we want to see anyway (thank you fantasy football).  Get maybe 4 teams of 7 guys, and do a sort of round-robbin tournament.  Make 1 lineman mandatory, and make the defense count to 5-7 Mississippi's before sending 1 guy in on a blitz.  True, salt of the earth, pick up football.

I'm being serious!  Maybe that would give these guys some incentive to play hard, to show each other up since they like to trash talk all the time anyway (especially receivers and defensive backs).  All of these "all-star" games are meant to be an exhibition of the players' skills.  This would truly showcase them.

Let me know if you think my idea is worthy of the Pro Bowl or the toilet bowl. 


Friday, January 23, 2015

Deflate-gate? Please, someone take the air out of this story!

Gimme' a break with this story, already.  This is dragging on way too long.  And do you know why?  Because the NFL is absolutely crapping their pants as a result of one of its biggest stars doing something wrong, right before the Super Bowl, nonetheless!  It's not bad enough that "All American" Tom Brady got in trouble, but what's worse, is that Brady contradicted himself, and even flat out lied (in my opinion), during his press conference yesterday.  At one point he said he likes the footballs at 12.5psi, but couldn't tell the difference when using the under-inflated balls during the Colts game.  Really, dude?  As an NFL quarterback, you practically live with a football in your hands.  You should be able to tell when it's off by 0.01psi.  I'm not buying that he didn't know, and actually take it as an insult that he's trying to sell it that way.  

After dropping the ball on the Ray Rice case (and several others during the year), the NFL has to save face by punishing Brady and the Patriots, especially since this was something that happened on the field, not off.  But you're completely out of your mind if you think the punishment will be the suspension of one Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. (I had no idea that was his full name, either) for the Super Bowl.  Never gonna' happen.  To be honest, though, the NFL is damned if they do, and damned if they don't in this situation.  Everyone outside of New England, I'm sure, is calling for his head.  And when the punishment comes out and he's not suspended, they'll all say, "Well it's because it's Tom Brady.  If it were Joe Blow he'd be suspended."  And in my opinion, that's probably true.  But put yourself in Roger Goodell's shoes.  Would you have the balls (deflated or not) to suspend one of the best players in football for the Super Bowl?  Keep in mind that the NFL is a business, and Jimmy Garoppolo isn't going to make people tune in to the game.  So the answer is most likely no.

I'll tell you exactly what's going to happen.  Tom Brady and/or the Patriots will be fined, and if Goodell is feeling frisky, maybe he'll take away a draft pick like he did with spy-gate.  That's it.  Brady will be under center come Super Bowl, people will bitch and moan, and life will go on.  Actually, the NFL will probably change the rule on football inflation since, you know, things change when Tom Brady is involved (see the "tuck rule" and the season he lost by a "low hit").